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The views expressed in this article are the personal views of the authors, and may not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. Thanks to Cameron Lawrence, Maureen O’Hara, Esra Ozer, Stephen Scott, and Celine Hwang for their comments.

Has this ever happened to you: You work diligently on a problem—week after week, perhaps year after year— and then one day, out of the blue, someone else offers an observation or solution that had never occurred to you? “Yes! Eureka! Serendipity!” But also, “Ugh— why didn’t I think of that?”

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