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Nero-Moments: How Collapse of Social Trust Leads to State Breakdown

Nero-Moments: How Collapse of Social Trust Leads to State Breakdown

by Peter Turchin

Emeritus Professor at the University of Connecticut

Jun 11, 2024

Compendium

Public trust in the US federal government has sunk to a new low. According to Pew Research Center, the proportion of Americans, who said they trusted the government “just about always” or “most of the time,” declined from a peak of 77% in 1964 to just 16% in 2023.1 This negative trend has huge implications, because the collapse of trust in the state’s institutions undermines its ability to keep internal peace and order.

As the legitimacy of our institutions wanes, the stability of our society becomes increasingly tenuous. However, as our historical research shows, people typically fail to recognize that their society might suddenly crumble around them. 

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Picture of commenter Craig Brackbill
Craig Brackbill – Jan 01, 2025

What, published in June and no comments as of January? Suffice it to say, the US has plunged even deeper into plutocracy these past 6 months. And the weather continues to grow more extreme. Personally, I’m concentrating on preparing for the weather and utility unreliability. They’re about the only concrete changes I can make.

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Picture of commenter Antonia Baur
Antonia Baur – Jan 02, 2025

I hear that!

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Picture of commenter paul canosa
paul canosa – Jan 02, 2025

[Removed Comment]

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Picture of commenter paul canosa
paul canosa – Jan 02, 2025

I've come to the conclusion that stating the obvious helps ones mental health "Its a feature of the system" Setting ones expectations to near zero when it comes to a lack of proper public policy, rampant corruption, transparency is nowhere to be seen and both the message as well as the messengers openly have their hands on the scale of justice. What can one human do ? Build resilience, get into better physical condition, practice mental discipline, create or seek like minded community. Kindred spirits are everywhere and the net is a great opportunity to find others who think as "we" do. I no longer expect things to "get better" and actually tend to believe it will get worse. Its nice to be surprised when something nice does happen. Some may call it "doom porn" or "pessimism". I prefer to think of it as "practical thinking". Epic collapse in Syria ? feature of the system. Slave markets in Libya ? yup, a feature. Rise of Western Sahel in response to failing French systemic colonialism ? a nice surprise. Argentina turning its back on BRICS and electing a man willing to take a chainsaw to many state enterprises ? feature. Weapons passing through Ukraine before appearing in West Asia ? FotS. Pakistan teetering on anarchy ? FotS. Canadian parliament applauding nazis ? yup a feature. We are truly fortunate to have found Professor Turchin's post. I hope more do as well.

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