Earlier this year, author Peter Turchin published End Times, in which he lays out his ideas on how societies collapse and how this can be predicted through a study of historical cycles of unrest. Referring to himself as a "collapsologist,” Turchin identifies recurring trends that lead to societal and civil instability. His work draws on vast datasets in which he spies a common pattern: "an alternation of integrative and disintegrative phases lasting for roughly a century.”
Turchin identifies two major destabilizing forces: a "wealth pump" exacerbating income inequality and an "overproduction of elites" competing for power. Both are seen operating at full tilt today and these twin factors, Turchin argues, lead to societal breakdown almost inevitably if not brought into balance. Many western societies, and most particularly the United States, are nearing climax of the most current disintegrative phase, and with that comes a heightened risk of civil unrest and systemic collapse.
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